±2–10%
Monthly swings of 2% to 10% are ordinary in base-metal prices. Each one moves your landed cost the day it lands.
Commodity price intelligence for the metals you buy
Know which way metal prices are about to move.
MetalAlert is a commodity intelligence platform for the strategic purchaser: forward-looking probabilities for every LME base metal. Time your buys, defend your margin, and walk into every negotiation with confidence.
- Every LME base metal
- Daily settlement data
- Calibrated & walk-forward tested
- 1- & 3-month horizons
Example
0%
chance the 3-month average runs ≥5% higher
| Move | Horizon | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| ▲ +2% | 1 month | 41% |
| ▲ +5% | 3 months | 34% |
| ▼ −5% | 3 months | 12% |
● Alerts at 30%, or on a 10-pt jump
Updated daily after LME settlement
Every probability is tested against outcomes the model never saw, and every model change we try is published, including the ones that failed.
- Walk-forward validated
- Refreshed every trading day
- Public research log
Built for category and commodity managers, strategic sourcing, procurement and supply-chain leads, and treasury teams carrying metal exposure.
The cost of being caught off guard
A 10% metal price move is a line item you'll be explaining for two quarters.
Metal prices don't wait for the next planning cycle. When a swing lands before you've covered volume, it shows up as margin, as budget variance, and as a conversation with finance.
Weeks
The forward-buy window opens and closes fast. Reacting after the price prints means you've already paid for it.
What MetalAlert does for the strategic purchaser
Turn price uncertainty into a number you can act on.
Forward-buy with conviction
Lock in volume before a probable spike instead of covering after the market has repriced. You set the probability that triggers the decision.
Time contracts and hedges
Line up renewal dates, order timing, and hedge ratios against 1- and 3-month probabilities across every metal you track, side by side.
Defensible decisions
Bring finance a calibrated number, plus the energy, FX, industrial-activity and volatility inputs behind it.
First to know
Set an alert per metal, horizon, and magnitude: fire when the probability reaches a level, or when it jumps versus last day, week, or month. The email is in your inbox that morning; no dashboard-watching required.
How it works
From licensed exchange data to an email in your inbox.
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01
Institutional market data
Daily LME cash settlement prices, plus SHFE, LME and COMEX futures curves, energy prices, currency strength, industrial activity, volatility regimes, and credit conditions, feed one daily pipeline.
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02
Calibrated ML models
Classifiers trained jointly across every metal we track estimate the probability that a future month's average price runs ≥2%, ≥5%, or ≥10% above or below this month's, over 1- and 3-month horizons. A signal that says "30%" has, out of sample, happened close to 30% of the time.
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03
Alerts on your terms
Pick a metal, direction, magnitude, and horizon, then choose the trigger: when the probability reaches a level you set, or when it changes by a set amount versus the previous day, week, or month. MetalAlert emails you the moment it happens.
Inside the platform
Everything you need to justify the timing of a buy.
12 calibrated probabilities per metal
Each metal gets up and down moves at ±2%, ±5%, and ±10%, over 1- and 3-month horizons. The full picture on one page per metal.
The average you'll actually pay
Every probability compares the future month's average price to this month's average, rather than a single day's print.
Calibration & backtest, shown
Each model's walk-forward track record on data it never trained on sits right on the metal's page, scored on Brier skill and Matthews correlation.
A public research log
Every model change we test is logged in the open, with its result, whether or not we shipped it.
Two ways to get alerted
Fire when a probability reaches a level you set, or when it changes by a set amount versus the previous day, week, or month.
"Insufficient history," not false precision
Where the record is too thin for a reliable estimate, MetalAlert says so and shows no number.
What the inputs cost
The data behind these probabilities costs more than most teams can justify alone.
MetalAlert's models are trained on licensed feeds from five market-data vendors. Subscriptions like these are not cheap: our estimate is USD 10,000 to 30,000 a year each, which puts the input cost somewhere in the region of USD 50,000 to 150,000 a year. We carry that once, across every subscriber, and you pay a flat monthly fee for the conclusions drawn from it.
See what's includedMarket-data vendors behind the models5
Estimated cost per vendor subscriptionUSD 10k–30k / year
Estimated input cost, all fiveUSD 50k–150k / year
Pipeline, training and validationongoing
What MetalAlert costs youone flat monthly fee
The vendor count is exact; the costs are our own estimates, not quotes. Vendor pricing is rarely public and varies widely by firm, coverage and licence terms. MetalAlert publishes model outputs, not vendor data, and does not redistribute the underlying feeds.
What one signal is worth
One well-timed forward buy can pay for a year of the subscription.
Rather than invent a case study, put your own numbers in. This is arithmetic on your spend, not a claim about what the market is going to do.
Book a walkthroughVolume coveredUSD 461,538
Cost avoided on that volumeUSD 32,308
Your inputs, worked through as arithmetic. This is not a forecast: MetalAlert does not promise any particular price move or saving, and a probability is never a guarantee.
Methodology & guardrails
Calibrated, validated, and honest about its limits.
Licensed exchange data, not scraped
Daily LME cash settlement prices arrive through a licensed institutional market-data feed, alongside SHFE, LME and COMEX futures curves and a broad set of macro and cross-market indicators. The full source list is on the methodology page.
The average, not the extreme
Each probability compares the future month's average price to this month's average, matching what you will actually pay around that date.
Calibrated, not just ranked
Every model is walk-forward validated against outcomes it never trained on, and the per-metal record is in the app.
Honest about the tail
The rare ≥10% moves get dedicated extreme-value models rather than being extrapolated from calmer data; and where history is too thin, MetalAlert shows "insufficient history" instead of a false number.
A living model
Prices refresh daily and models are retrained regularly, so predictions track current market conditions rather than a monthly snapshot.
Not investment advice
MetalAlert's probabilities are decision support for purchasing teams, not financial advice and not a guarantee. Use them alongside your own judgment and hedging strategy.
Pricing
One subscription. Every base metal.
All LME base metals, every horizon and magnitude, both alert types, unlimited emails, for one flat monthly price. Sign-up isn't open yet: book a walkthrough to see it now.
MetalAlert subscription
- All LME base metals: 12 probabilities each
- 1- and 3-month forward horizons
- Unlimited email alerts: threshold and probability-change
- Calibration & backtest track record in-app
- Public research log of every model change tested
- Price history, monthly-change and model-accuracy charts
Ferrous and precious metals are planned, not included today.
Sign-up isn't open yet. Book a 20-minute walkthrough and we'll show you the platform directly, and you'll be first in line for the 14-day free trial once sign-up goes live.
Book a walkthrough Join the waitlist
FAQ
Questions the strategic purchaser usually asks first.
Which metals are covered?
Every LME base metal is included in the subscription, using their daily LME cash settlement prices. Ferrous and precious metals are planned, not available yet.
What does a probability actually mean?
It's the estimated chance that the average price over the stated future month runs at least 2%, 5%, or 10% above or below this month's average. Not a one-day spike, but what you'd realistically be paying around that date.
Where does the data come from?
Institutional daily LME settlement data, plus SHFE, LME and COMEX futures curves, energy prices, currency strength, industrial activity, volatility regimes, and credit conditions. Full detail is on the in-app methodology page.
How accurate are the probabilities?
They're calibrated (a "30%" has, out of sample, occurred close to 30% of the time) and walk-forward validated against outcomes the models never trained on. Each metal's track record, scored on Brier skill and Matthews correlation, is shown on its page. Every model change we test is logged, including the ones that didn't work; that research log becomes public once the app is live.
How do alerts work?
Set a rule per metal, direction, magnitude, and horizon, then choose the trigger: fire when the probability reaches a level you set, or when it changes by a set amount versus the previous day, week, or month. MetalAlert emails you when it happens.
Is there a free trial?
Not yet: sign-up isn't open. Book a walkthrough and we'll show you the platform directly, and you'll be first in line for the 14-day free trial once sign-up goes live.
Is this investment advice?
No. MetalAlert is decision support for purchasing teams, to be used alongside your own judgment and hedging strategy. It is not financial advice or a guarantee of future price movement.
Bring the odds to your next buying decision.
Sign-up isn't open yet. Book 20 minutes and we'll run it against your spend directly.
14-day free trial, once sign-up opens.
Or just leave your email, and we'll tell you the moment sign-up opens.
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